What We Said. What Happened. When.
A public record of every cascade prediction we’ve published, with the exact date it was made, the source that verified or falsified it, and the current confidence.
@v2, @v3) — the prior version stays in the registry. Nothing is deleted.
How this works: Every claim in a casefile is entered into a hypothesis registry before it can be verified. The cascade runner checks each claim nightly at 02:30 UTC against named primary sources — wire services, regulatory filings, vessel tracking APIs, commodity price feeds. A claim moves to “confirmed” only when the runner finds direct, on-the-record evidence from the registered source. A claim is “falsified” when its stated kill condition fires.
Timestamps are immutable. All claim creation dates are recorded in git at the time of casefile publication. The git commit hash is the receipt. Retroactive changes to claim text trigger a version increment (e.g., @v2, @v3) — the prior version stays in the registry. Nothing is deleted.
Sulfuric Acid Cascade
| Claim | Status | Confidence | Priority | Verified | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulfur cannot be independently scaled — it is a byproduct of hydrocarbon processing. A surge in defense or industrial budget authority does not translate into more supply when the essential reagent is itself supply-constrained. sac-mwi-byproduct-trap | Confirmed | 0.90 |
|
Apr 13, 2026 | West Point MWI |
| Replacing the two AN/FPS-132 early warning radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar requires over 30,000 kg of copper procurement — illustrating the material intensity of defense systems that depend on SX-EW copper production, which itself depends on sulfuric acid. sac-mwi-radar-copper-demand | Confirmed | 0.85 |
|
Apr 13, 2026 | West Point MWI |
| Mosaic curtailed its Fospar and Araxá phosphate operations in Brazil in December 2025, citing sharp sulfur price increases, and extended the curtailment into January 2026. sac-mosaic-brazil-uberaba-araxa@v5 | Confirmed | 0.88 |
|
Apr 12, 2026 | Yahoo Finance / Mosaic IR |
| Pakistan imports approximately 75–85% of its DAP fertilizer requirements. OCP Morocco is the dominant single-country source, though Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) and China also supply significant volumes. sac-pakistan-85pct-dap-imported@v5 | Confirmed | 0.72 |
|
Apr 12, 2026 | PACRA Fertilizer Report Feb 2025 |
| Ultra-high-purity sulfuric acid is a standard cleaning agent in semiconductor fabrication. A sustained acid disruption would propagate to foundry output within months, with downstream implications for defense electronics sharing fabrication capacity with commercial chips. sac-mwi-uhp-acid-semiconductor | Confirmed | 0.75 |
|
Apr 13, 2026 | West Point MWI |
| In Q1 2021, Codelco's Gabriela Mistral copper mine suffered a 40% production slump partly attributed to a lack of sulfuric acid access. This is the relevant historical analog for 2026 cascade risk. sac-codelco-gabriela-mistral-40pct-drop — Note: historical analog, not a 2026 event | Confirmed | 0.82 |
|
Apr 12, 2026 | Mining.com |
The November Cliff — Critical Minerals Truce Expiry
The runner has not yet executed on this casefile. All 44 claims are in “monitoring” state — registered, timestamped, and awaiting evidence. Key checkpoints below.
Selected monitoring claims from the hypothesis registry (44 total):
| Claim | Status | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| The April 2025 MOFCOM licensing regime imposing case-by-case export permit requirements on medium and heavy rare earths, gallium, germanium, and tungsten is the operative policy layer entering the November cliff window. nc-layers-april-regime | Monitoring | |
| A key InP substrate company's quarterly indium phosphide revenue is the direct proxy for MOFCOM export permit velocity — Q1 2026 earnings (April 30) are the first hard data point. nc-tell-inp-permits | Monitoring | |
| The dysprosium oxide price spread between Chinese domestic (~$230/kg) and European delivered (~$800/kg) — a 3.5x risk premium — is the live market signal for Western buyers' assessment of supply risk. nc-tell-dy-spread | Monitoring | |
| China's October 2025 extraterritorial controls — including the 50 Percent Rule — are suspended under the truce. Reinstatement would be the harshest available escalation signal. nc-layers-october-suspended | Monitoring | |
| A DOD invocation of Defense Production Act Title III for rare earth separation capacity would be the clearest signal that the US government has concluded the November cliff will not resolve in the West's favor. nc-tell-dpa-title3 | Monitoring | |
| Western defense primes and industrial buyers will begin emergency rare earth and critical mineral stockpiling approximately 60–90 days before the November truce expiry if no extension is announced. The stockpiling window is the Q3 setup trade. nc-tell-stockpiling | Monitoring |
Tracked Positions
Positions are tracked from the date the casefile that drives the thesis was published — not from when the price moved. The performance page shows live returns against inception prices.
| Ticker | Direction | Inception | Casefile | Thesis basis |
|---|
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10 tracked positions with ticker-level thesis context, trade direction, and inception dates. The verification methodology and claim accuracy record above are free.
Unlock Positions →Verification Methodology
Claim registry: Every claim is entered into a hypotheses.jsonl file before it can be verified. Each claim has a unique ID, a stated source, a test type (source fetch, API check, threshold, manual), and a kill condition. Claims cannot be retroactively modified — version increments (@v2) preserve the original text.
Automated runner: The cascade runner executes nightly at 02:30 UTC. It fetches each claim's registered source URL, runs the specified test, and appends a result to history.jsonl. Confidence scores are the runner's output — not editorial estimates. Source fetch results are verified by a secondary language model acting as judge, not by pattern matching alone.
Human review gate: Any confirmed-to-falsified transition (or vice versa) is flagged in the review queue and requires human approval before the casefile reflects the change. The three-pass framework (two independent fact-check agents plus an adversarial reviewer) runs before any status change is committed to git.
Audit trail: All status transitions are recorded in git with commit hashes. The history.jsonl file is append-only. The commit hash at the time of original claim publication is the immutable timestamp. If a claim was published after the fact, that would be visible in the git log — it cannot be hidden.