✕
Dashboard Leaderboard Tools Policy Research Method About Login Get Pro →

Research & Analysis

Policy analysis, investment theses, and deep dives backed by our backtested convergence methodology.

Latest Research
NEW Policy Apr 30, 2026

The $2.7 Billion Receipt: How DOE Wrote the AI Energy Put

On Jan 5 2026 the DOE issued $2.7B in fixed-price HALEU task orders. The market is pricing it asymmetrically. We map the receipts across fuel, grid, substrates, cooling, and minerals — 25 names, 5 asymmetric.

DOE Outlay: $2.7B Names Mapped: 25 Asymmetric: 5 Read research →
NEW Supply Chain Mar 18, 2026

The CPO Supply Chain: Who Gates the $90B Optical Buildout

Co-packaged optics is the next architecture transition in AI infrastructure. We mapped the full supply chain — 10 layers, 50+ companies, every chokepoint — and scored each node by how much downstream value it gates. Interactive map with bottleneck severity, asymmetry ratios, and prediction engine integration.

Layers: 10 Companies: 50+ Proven: AXTI +79% Explore map →
NEW Deep Dive Feb 17, 2026

Congressional Sector Analysis: Where Oversight Meets Opportunity

178 trades across 7 strategic sectors. 90% of robotics trades come from defense committee members. 25 trades disclosed 40+ days after execution. Committee capture rates, transparency scores, and the 44-Day Whisper.

Sector Trades: 178 Committee Overlap: Up to 90% Late Disclosures: 25 Read analysis →
NEW Macro Framework Feb 16, 2026

The Great Power Cycle: Where We Are in the Dalio Framework

Mapping the US-China power transition through Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle framework. 8 determinants of power, 5 types of war already underway, $1T annual interest payments, and what it means for defense, energy, and technology positioning.

Stage: 5 of 6 War Types Active: 4 of 5 Scanners Mapped: 19 Read framework →
NEW Geopolitical Feb 15, 2026

China Rare Earth Dependency: Defense Supply Chain Risk Map

Interactive visualization of US defense dependency on Chinese rare earth processing. 90% processing control, 99% heavy REE, 6-11 month stockpile window. The 0.1% Rule, Myanmar shadow supply, weapons-system intensity matrix, and the scale gap between ambition and reality.

China Control: 90-99% Defense Systems: 6 mapped Elements: 10 tracked Read research →
NEW Data Publication Feb 15, 2026

Q4 2025 Quarterly Convergence Report

100 tickers where multiple independent data sources aligned. 82% bullish. 17 high-conviction convergences from 5+ sources. Defense and AI dominated. Original analysis from 34 automated scanners — the baseline quarter for QoQ trend tracking.

Convergences: 100 High-Conviction: 17 Sources: 34 scanners Read report →
NEW Framework Feb 14, 2026

The AI Infrastructure Bottleneck Framework

The Constraint Relay Race: mapping pricing power, capital cycles, and reflexivity across 7 layers of AI infrastructure — from Compute to Miniaturization. 45+ tickers analyzed through the lens of bottleneck migration and forced capital allocation.

Layers: 7 Tickers: 45+ Convergence Detected: 15 tickers Read framework →
NEW Thesis Apr 30, 2026

AXTI: The Western InP Substrate Chokepoint

AXT Inc. is the dominant Western merchant supplier of InP and GaAs compound semiconductor substrates. Critical for CPO transceivers, defense radar, and 5G PAs. Bottleneck severity 4/5, supply chain alpha score 572.

Conviction: 6.8/10 Severity: 4/5 Alpha Score: 572 Read thesis →
NEW Thesis Apr 30, 2026

Iridium: The Only Pole-to-Pole Satellite Network

IRDM operates the only LEO constellation with global L-band spectrum and full polar coverage. $318M guided FCF, EMSS defense contracts, and NTN Direct (smartphone-to-satellite) catalyst targeting H2 2026. Triple-pillar conviction.

Guided FCF: $318M Spectrum: L-band monopoly Catalyst: NTN Direct H2 2026 Read thesis →
NEW Thesis Feb 17, 2026

Tesla: The Geometric Optionality Machine

Five independent verticals — auto, energy storage, FSD, robotaxi, Optimus — each with different evidence maturity. Energy is the most quantifiable: 46.7 GWh deployed, 133 GWh capacity by 2026. The thesis is venture-style position sizing with public market liquidity.

Conviction: 7.8/10 Energy GWh: 46.7 Optionality Verticals: 5 Read thesis →
NEW Thesis Feb 13, 2026

Rambus: The Memory IP Tollbooth

2,150+ patents embedded in JEDEC memory standards. All three DRAM makers locked into licensing. Royalties scale directly with AI memory volume at near-zero marginal cost — every HBM chip shipped pays the toll.

Conviction: 8.2/10 Patents: 2,150+ DRAM Licensees: All 3 makers Read thesis →
NEW Thesis Feb 14, 2026

Solstice: The Hidden Nuclear Monopoly Inside a Refrigerant Company

The market prices SOLS as a $10B chemicals company at 10x EV/EBITDA. Hidden inside: the only US uranium conversion facility, with an NRC license through 2060. Legacy contracts repricing at identical cost = pure margin expansion. Dual AI exposure through nuclear power and data center cooling.

Conviction: 8.1/10 NRC License: Through 2060 Backlog: $2B Read thesis →
NEW Thesis Feb 17, 2026

Carpenter Technology: The Specialty Alloy Tollbooth for Western Rearmament

500+ patents embedded in 90% of jet engine certifications. SASC senator buying, Loeb/Cohen/Griffin loading. EU €800B rearmament as the structural demand floor. The certified monopoly in nickel superalloys Western rearmament cannot bypass.

Conviction: 8.0/10 Engine Certs: 90% FY27 Target: \$765–800M Read thesis →
Policy Alert Feb 2, 2026

DOE Nuclear Fast-Track: The Complete Beneficiary Stack

The DOE established a categorical exclusion for advanced nuclear reactors, allowing SMRs to bypass lengthy NEPA environmental reviews. We mapped the first, second, and third order beneficiaries.

First Order: SMR, OKLO Second Order: CCJ, LEU Third Order: CEG, VST, BWX Read analysis →
Thesis Feb 5, 2026

Bloom Energy: The Data Center Power Bottleneck Play

Gas turbines sold out through 2028. Bloom's SOFCs deploy in 90 days vs 4+ years. AEP exercised $2.65B option. The time-to-power arbitrage thesis.

Conviction: 8.1/10 Deploy Time: 90 days ITC Boost: 30% Read thesis →
Deep Dive Feb 10, 2026

MP Materials: America's Rare Earth Monopoly at the Center of the China Decoupling Trade

The only US integrated mine-to-magnet rare earth producer. DoD $400M equity stake + $110/kg NdPr price floor + 10-year offtake. DPA national emergency declared. $10B EXIM Project Vault. 7 converging ForcedAlpha indicators.

Conviction: 7.3/10 Price Floor: $110/kg Indicators: 7 sources Read thesis →
Thesis Feb 2026

Amazon: The AI Infrastructure Capex Cycle

AWS spending $100B+ on AI infrastructure. Vertical integration from copper to custom chips to AI models. Supply chain beneficiaries identified.

Capex: $100B+ Trainium: Custom Silicon Robots: 1M+ deployed Read thesis →
Casefiles
Casefile Flagship May 7, 2026

Every Cheap Token Still Has a Physical Bill

The market has the AI cost curve backwards. Cheaper tokens mean more usage. More usage hits the eight-layer physical stack. The forced trade sits two to six layers beneath NVIDIA.

Read casefile →
Casefile Manifesto May 8, 2026

Three Forces, One Periodic Table

AI compute, defense procurement, energy transition, and quantum-national-security all pull on the same constrained periodic table. Four demand waves, one bottleneck.

Read casefile →
Casefile Geopolitical May 4, 2026

MOFCOM Convergence: Pre-Summit Intelligence Brief

China’s first-ever blocking statute invocation reveals MOFCOM as a unified command node for sanctions counter-compliance and critical mineral export permits. Three probability-weighted scenarios with dated triggers for portfolio positioning before the expected Trump-Xi summit.

Read casefile →
Casefile Geopolitical

The Sulfuric Acid Cascade

When a Chinese export ban, a frozen Gulf, and a Pakistan debt wall share the same 30 days. Live hypothesis tracking across three simultaneous supply shocks with position-level implications.

Read casefile →
Casefile Supply Chain

The 13 Atoms

13 chokepoints. 8 controlled by China. $55T downstream. The elemental bottlenecks that gate the entire semiconductor, defense, and energy supply chain.

Read casefile →
Casefile Supply Chain

The Specialty Chemistry Supercycle

The capex funnel from AI infrastructure buildout to specialty chemical demand. Mapping the companies that produce the materials fabs cannot run without.

Read casefile →
Casefile Geopolitical

The NDAA Rare Earth Cascade

52 days between China's leash snapping and the Pentagon's deadline. Tracking the legislative and supply chain cascade from the National Defense Authorization Act's rare earth provisions.

Read casefile →
Casefile Geopolitical

The Tungsten Squeeze

China controls 80%+ of global tungsten supply. Export restrictions tightening. Defense and semiconductor applications have no substitutes at scale. Tracking the squeeze in real time.

Read casefile →
Casefile Macro

The November Cliff

Policy deadlines, budget cliffs, and expiring provisions converging on a single month. Tracking the cascade of fiscal and regulatory triggers with market-moving potential.

Read casefile →
Coming Soon
Coming Soon

Defense Committee Selling: What Appropriations Members Know

Three defense committee members sold NOC within a 2-week window. Analyzing the pattern and what it indicates about budget negotiations.

Analysis in progress
Coming Soon

Convergence Backtest: 5 Years of Data

We backtested convergence detection across 34 data sources over 5 years. Verified results with full methodology, sample sizes, and transparent disclosure.

Publishing soon

Get research in your inbox

New analysis when convergence alerts hit. No spam.