CASEFILES

Live supply chain investigations

Each casefile is an auditable, timestamped investigation into how a real industrial cascade is unfolding. Every branch tested, every monitoring trigger, every kill condition is stated in advance and updated in public as new evidence appears.

Two Layers Deeper: the AI supply chain's second chokepoint per theme

TOPOLOGY

Eleven named, sourced supply chain names two layers above the public framing — power, packaging, minerals, InP.

Published May 6, 2026Cuts 11 namedFormat topology

Every Cheap Token Still Has a Physical Bill

FLAGSHIP

The market thinks cheaper AI inference reduces infrastructure spend. We think it inverts: cheaper tokens drive more usage, more usage hits the eight-layer physical stack. The forced trade may sit two to six layers beneath NVIDIA.

Published May 7, 2026Updated May 8, 2026Layers 8Confidence high

Three Forces, One Periodic Table

MANIFESTO

The company-level thesis. AI compute, defense procurement, energy transition, and quantum-national-security all pull on the same constrained periodic table. Four demand waves, one bottleneck. Fifteen materials, four columns, sixty cells, ten cascade claims monitored nightly.

Opened May 8, 2026Confidence moderate-highType Manifesto

The 13 Atoms — Where the Quad Converges

META-CASEFILE

Structural framework. AI, defense, energy, and robotics share thirteen material inputs. Eight concentrated in one country's export-control apparatus. $55T 4-hop graph reach. The architecture is the thesis; the prediction is the monitoring.

Opened Apr 16, 2026Confidence moderate-highType Structural

When a Chinese export ban, a frozen Gulf, and a Pakistan debt wall share the same 30 days

LEADING BRANCH

Three-cascade convergence with Pakistan as first observable breaking point

Opened Apr 11, 2026Updated Apr 13, 2026Confidence moderate

The November Cliff — China's minerals truce expires November 10

MONITORING

The restrictions everyone thinks were lifted are already active. 695 Western companies exposed as the hard expiry date approaches.

Opened Apr 13, 2026Updated Apr 13, 2026Confidence moderate-highHorizon Nov 10, 2026

The Tungsten Squeeze — 82.7% of global processing went dark

INVESTIGATING

China’s APT embargo, three downstream paths (defense, semiconductors, industrial tooling), one shared bottleneck. APT prices up ~960%. Window: 18–24 months.

Opened Apr 15, 2026Confidence moderateHorizon Jan 1, 2027

What is a casefile?

A casefile is one investigation into one question. It has a leading path, tested alternatives, a physical-vs-financial first-impact split, real monitoring triggers with named sources, and real falsifiers with specific dates. Every factual claim traces to a verifiable public source.

Casefiles are published before consensus prices them. When a monitoring trigger fires or a falsifier triggers, the casefile's status updates in place — never retrofitted, never backfilled. The whole history is the receipt.

Unlike research reports, casefiles are live. Status transitions are public. Wrong calls are marked wrong. The point isn't to be right about every thesis — it's to map how physical-economy cascades actually propagate and to be willing to be checked in public.