A causal graph of physical dependencies, supply chain chokepoints, and forced capital flows across semiconductors, defense, energy, and critical minerals. When the world changes, the graph traces who is exposed and what must move next.
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Physical dependency chains with severity ratings, typed relationships, and zero-alternative flags across the global supply chain.
The graph traced 71 downstream dependencies most analysts missed.
Qatar produces 25–33% of global helium — a critical gas for semiconductor fabrication. The cascade: helium supply → TSMC and Samsung fabs (leak detection, EUV source cooling) → ASML lithography systems → advanced chip production worldwide. South Korea sources 64.7% of its helium from Qatar. Taiwan sources 69% from the Gulf.
The Hormuz closure compounded it — 71 nodes reachable within 3 hops, from crude oil and LNG flows to Korean fab energy supplies to Japanese naphtha used in chip substrates. Each path was already mapped in the graph before the first tanker rerouted.
Every edge is typed, directional, and severity-rated. Every cascade path is computable in milliseconds.
Explore the Graph →Select a disruption. Watch the cascade propagate through real supply chain dependencies.
Automated collection across government, markets, and policy — feeding every data point into the knowledge graph.
Automated collection feeds every data point into the knowledge graph to detect chain-level convergences
Supply chain deep dives and investment theses generated from the graph
Live, auditable investigations into physical-economy cascades. Every branch tested, every monitoring trigger, every kill condition stated in advance. Published before consensus prices them.
I spotted a convergence in silver — congressional trades, a technical breakout, and institutional accumulation all hitting one after another. I bought calls and made 12x. But I sold at $48.
It went to $95.
The thesis was right. The entry was right. What I lacked was systematic convergence scoring — a way to know when enough structurally distinct data points had aligned to hold, not just enter.
Seven years inside Amazon's constraint systems — regulatory deadlines that couldn't slip, manufacturing floors that forced procurement, compliance rules that triggered real economic action regardless of anyone's intent. ForcedAlpha applies the same thinking: find the structural constraints that force capital to move, then map the chain before the market prices it.
Every data source is public. The structural intelligence that connects them is ours. Every alert is logged at detection, not hindsight. No cherry-picking, no silent deletions.
Our thesis: when governments act, institutions file, and capital shifts — every downstream chain is trackable before the market prices it. Read the framework →
Free tier — weekly intelligence from 4686 nodes and 34 sources
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