Position fields

• Status — OPEN means none of the rules-based thresholds below have fired yet. It does not mean “added today.” The pill stays OPEN until a threshold fires or a partial exit is logged.
• Added — number of follow-on alerts on this name since the first one. Added: 0 means we haven’t published a follow-on alert.
• Date — first alert date (when the name was originally flagged). Not the most recent activity.
• Entry / Current / Δ Entry — first-alert price, latest market price, return from first-alert price.
• Peak / Δ Peak / DD — highest price reached since the first alert. DD (drawdown) is the % off that peak. A name that hit +60% and is now at +40% has DD of −20%.

Archetypes (convergence type)

• Institutional + Policy — both 13F filings and policy catalysts converge on the name. Strongest convergence class in our scoring.
• Multi-Source Conviction — four or more independent convergence sources (institutional, policy, options, FTDs, technicals, etc.).
• Policy Driven — policy catalyst without 13F. Single-vector but high-signal when it fires.
• Squeeze Setup — convergence includes failures-to-deliver (FTDs) or unusual options activity. Short-squeeze / gamma-squeeze pattern.
• Technical Setup (lower conviction) — no 13F, no policy, no FTDs, no options flow. Chart structure only. Lowest weighting in our convergence scoring.
• Other — fallback for names with missing or malformed convergence-source data. Internal data-review flag, not a category.

Profit-taking alerts

These fire mechanically when the price crosses a published threshold. They describe what the price did, not what to do.

The thresholds below are calibrated, not fixed. The system learns from how past picks performed and adjusts the levels over time. The +40% / +80% / −25% values shown are the current calibration — they can shift as the model retrains on live outcomes.

• Take Profit 1 — peak return has crossed +40% above the first-alert price (current calibration).
• Take Profit 2 — peak return has crossed +80% above the first-alert price (current calibration).
• Partial Exit — a partial-exit milestone has been logged on the name. When this is logged, Take Profit alerts are suppressed because the milestone has already been recorded. The row shows “Partial exit logged on [date] at [price].”
• Stop-Loss Threshold — return has reached −25% below the first-alert price (current calibration).
• Drawdown / Peak Pullback — a previously rising name has given back significant ground from its peak.

Stress Mode

Toggle for high-volatility days. When ON, all OPEN names are bucketed by where they sit relative to our rules: CUT (return has reached −30% or the name’s thesis flags have fired — thesis-broken, competition-emerged, demand-collapsed), WATCH (drawdown has reached −20% from peak), HOLD (within rule bands). The −30% / −20% bands are also part of the calibration — they shift as the system learns. Setting persists locally per browser.

Tier 1 / Runner / Chokepoint Portfolio

Runner = the names themselves (names that crossed our quality-score threshold and produced an alert). Tier 1 Conviction Picks = this page, where you read those names plus the Pro layer (rule tracker, alerts, archetype filtering). The names come out of the live supply-chain chokepoint universe.

ForcedAlpha is a research and data tool, not a registered investment adviser. The alerts on this page reflect mechanical rules — not recommendations, and not personalised advice. Do your own work before acting on anything you see here.