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Sleeper Picks

Second and third-order plays with policy tailwinds. The trades nobody's making because they don't have "AI" in the name.

8/10

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan · Critical Minerals

The Thesis

Every data center needs 5,000-10,000 tons of copper. AI scales → data centers scale → copper demand scales. FCX is the derivative trade on AI infrastructure.

DOE-2026-001 EO-14157 DPA Minerals
  • L1: Data centers require massive copper
  • L2: EVs + grid compound demand
  • L3: Supply constrained (10-15yr mine timeline)
  • L4: DPA mandate favors domestic
  • L5: China controls processing (risk)

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$45Jan '2712%Base
$50Jan '2725%Core
$55Jan '2737%Lotto
Execution
  • Entry on copper price weakness
  • Sell 1/3 into copper spike news
  • Sell 1/3 on DOE announcement
  • Hold 1/3 for supply deficit story
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9/10

MP

MP Materials · Rare Earths

The Thesis

Only scaled US rare earth mine. DPA mandate guarantees demand. Government-backed moat. China controls 90% of processing — MP is the domestic alternative.

DPA-MINERALS DOE-2026-001 EO-14157
  • L1: Rare earths in everything advanced
  • L2: China controls 90% processing
  • L3: Mountain Pass only US option
  • L4: DPA mandate = guaranteed demand
  • L5: Magnet facility 2026 catalyst

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$18Jan '2720%Base
$20Jan '2733%Core
$25Jan '2767%Lotto
Execution
  • Buy on MP weakness (-10% days)
  • Sell 1/3 on DOE funding news
  • Sell 1/3 on magnet facility completion
  • Hold 1/3 for China escalation tail
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7/10

LAC

Lithium Americas · Battery Metals

The Thesis

Thacker Pass is the largest known lithium deposit in the US. GM invested $650M. DPA mandate for domestic battery supply chain.

DPA-MINERALS IRA Credits
  • L1: Every EV battery needs lithium
  • L2: China controls processing
  • L3: Thacker Pass = domestic supply
  • L4: GM partnership de-risks
  • L5: IRA credits = margin boost

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$5Jan '2740%Base
$7.50Jan '27100%Lotto
$10Jan '28180%Deep lotto
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8/10

HII

Huntington Ingalls · Defense Shipbuilding

The Thesis

Only US builder of nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines. AUKUS = $368B over 30 years. Can't be disrupted, can't be competed with.

AUKUS NDAA FY26 Navy Budget
  • L1: Only nuclear sub/carrier builder
  • L2: AUKUS = 30 year tailwind
  • L3: Can't compete (security clearances)
  • L4: Backlog = revenue visibility
  • L5: Pacific pivot = more ships

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$200Jan '2715%Base
$220Jan '2725%Core
$250Jan '2845%Long-dated
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7/10

AXON

Axon Enterprise · Law Enforcement + AI

The Thesis

Taser + body cams + AI-powered evidence management. Law enforcement can't NOT buy. SaaS model with 95%+ retention. AI features = pricing power.

COPS Grants State Budgets
  • L1: Body cams now mandatory in most states
  • L2: Evidence.com = sticky SaaS
  • L3: AI transcription = upsell
  • L4: Taser dominance (no competitor)
  • L5: Drone integration = next leg

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$650Jan '2715%Base
$700Jan '2725%Core
$800Jan '2740%Lotto
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7/10

KTOS

Kratos Defense · Drones + Hypersonics

The Thesis

Drone swarms and hypersonic targets. Ukraine proved drones are the future. Kratos builds the expendable combat drones DOD wants.

Replicator Program NDAA FY26
  • L1: Ukraine = drone warfare validation
  • L2: Replicator = DOD drone program
  • L3: XQ-58 Valkyrie in production
  • L4: Hypersonic targets (only provider)
  • L5: Attritable = high volume orders

🎯 LEAPS Expression

StrikeExpiryOTMRole
$30Jan '2725%Base
$35Jan '2745%Core
$40Jan '2765%Lotto

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes financial advice, a recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.