The knowledge graph that maps where capital is forced to go — before markets price it.
A causal graph of physical dependencies, supply chain chokepoints, and forced capital flows across semiconductors, defense, energy, and critical minerals. When the world changes, the graph traces who is exposed and what must move next.
Supply chain cascade
China restricts gallium exports →
AXTI is the dominant Western InP substrate supplier →
RTX and AVAV sit 2 hops downstream →
Armed Services member buys RTX and AVAV →
$230M RTX DoD contract 3 days before detection
5 independent data sources converged. That's a policy chain.
Multi-layer convergence
In-house InP laser fab gives AAOI vertical integration →
Amazon warrant deal ties to hyperscaler demand →
Hedge fund 13Fs show new institutional positions →
Options flow turns bullish →
12-year technical breakout confirms
AAOI: +91% since Feb 13 · Same supply chain as AXTI, different layer
The graph found both independently. One makes substrates, the other makes transceivers from them.
Graph topology discovery
SIVE ($270M, Sweden) makes InP laser dies for CPO →
Supplies POET + Ayar Labs for next-gen optical engines →
Cascades downstream to NVDA, AVGO, TSM ($7.5T+) →
No US scanner coverage = zero institutional visibility →
Found by graph topology alone
SIVE: +97% since Mar 16 · At 52-week highs right now
No convergence scanners see Stockholm. The knowledge graph did.
Every government action, institutional filing, and capital shift creates a chain of forced moves. The graph traces them all.
Most platforms scan for data points. We map the chains underneath them.
Policy shifts, contract awards, institutional repositioning, congressional trades — and the downstream companies they force into motion.
When the government restricts gallium exports, the graph traces the chain through every downstream defense prime, semiconductor fab, and institutional holder exposed. When a senator on the Armed Services Committee files a disclosure, the graph connects it to every contract and company in the chain. When three hedge funds file 13Fs on the same defense name in the same quarter, the graph already mapped why.
Scanners show you what's already moving. The graph shows you what's about to move.
I spotted a convergence in silver — congressional trades, a technical breakout, and institutional accumulation all hitting one after another. I bought calls and made 12x. But I sold at $48.
It went to $95.
The thesis was right. The entry was right. What I lacked was systematic convergence scoring — a way to know when enough structurally distinct data points had aligned to hold, not just enter.
Seven years inside Amazon's constraint systems — regulatory deadlines that couldn't slip, manufacturing floors that forced procurement, compliance rules that triggered real economic action regardless of anyone's intent. ForcedAlpha applies the same thinking: find the structural constraints that force capital to move, then map the chain before the market prices it.
Every data source is public. The structural intelligence that connects them is ours. Every alert is logged at detection, not hindsight. No cherry-picking, no silent deletions.
Our thesis: when governments act, institutions file, and capital shifts — every downstream chain is trackable before the market prices it. Read the framework →
System Output — Live
The graph processes 34 sources daily. Current detections below.
GRAPH OUTPUT
Live Convergence
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Live Graph Output
What the Graph Sees Right Now
Generated from 2,489 nodes and 34 independent sources. Updated daily.