Every pick gets a Quality Score the moment we surface it — built on chokepoint durability, demand intensity, and the company’s position in our supply chain graph (4,800+ nodes, 21,000+ edges — companies, materials, facilities, policy actors). Higher score, higher conviction. Score 8+ at entry: — win rate, — average return. Low scores have lagged. Re-ratings happen as evidence arrives; per-pick history logged from 2026-06-08.
Survivorship view. When picks get upgraded into higher tiers after they start working, the staircase breaks — the 6–7 bucket loses its winners to the 8+ bucket above it. This is exactly the post‑hoc bias the entry‑score view filters out. Toggle back to Score at Entry to see what the system actually predicted at decision time.
Win Rate by Score Bucket
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Each bar shows the win rate for picks within that entry score range only — not cumulative, not current score. The top bucket (8+) shows where the scoring system separates highest-conviction picks at the moment of entry. Sample size is still growing.
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Top vs. Bottom
Return gap between best and worst scores
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Supply Chain Boost
Extra return from mapped companies
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Gain / Loss Ratio
Dollars won per dollar lost, top tier
Performance Breakdown
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Combined Win Rate · — avg · — picks
▶ Show realized vs unrealized breakdown
Realized (closed)
Win Rate—
Avg Return—
Positions—
Unrealized (open)
Win Rate—
Avg Return—
Positions—
Realized returns skew negative because stop-losses fire early on losers while winners continue to run. This is by design — the system cuts losses fast. Unrealized positions are still open.
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Full Score Breakdown
Discrete score buckets. Each row shows only picks within that range — not cumulative. Shows where the scoring separates winners from losers.
Score Range
Picks
Win Rate
Median Return
Avg Return
Profit Factor
How the Tiers Work
The score ranks picks into three tiers. Runner is the primary product — the highest-conviction picks with supply chain confirmation.
Runner (Score 7+)
Highest confidence. Multiple sources agree AND the company sits at a critical supply chain position. Stop-loss at –20%.
Watchlist (Score 4–6)
The system tracks these but they lack full conviction — fewer sources or a less critical supply chain role. Lower conviction tier. Stop-loss at –15%.
Avoid (Score 0 or below)
The system flags these as low quality. We track them to prove the scoring works — and they consistently lose money.
The track record, two ways. Across — tracked picks: — positive so far, — average return. On the — positions we’ve closed: — closed positive, — average return, ~— winners to losers. Closed positions skew toward losers because the −15% stop fires faster than winners reach calibrated targets — the — open positions are where winners are still running.
Of the — picks currently in the 8+ tier, — entered there and — were upgraded into it. The upgraded cohort’s — is post‑hoc accounting, not predictive evidence — a pick can only be upgraded if it’s already working.
Every pick has a timestamped first‑appearance record. Coverage: —.
Losses shown are realised exits. When a pick hits its stop-loss, we close it and show the actual exit price. The stock may keep falling after — that continued decline is shown as context, not as our loss. Avoid-tier stocks that fell the furthest? The system flagged them as low quality before they dropped. Watchlist picks (formerly “Core”) are tracked at lower conviction. The "With Stops" column in the score table above shows aggregate returns with risk limits applied.
Best and Worst Picks
Biggest wins and biggest losses since March 2026. Losses show the realised exit return (where the stop triggered), with post-exit stock movement shown as context.
Best Picks
Worst Picks (Realised Exit Returns)
Runner Tier Performance
Highest-conviction picks identified by the V4 quality model
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PICKS
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WIN RATE
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AVG RETURN
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W/L RATIO
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BEST PICK
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WORST LOSS
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Returns shown are from detection date to current price and do not represent actual trades. This is not financial advice.
How It Works
What we scan:34 independent data sources — congressional trades, hedge fund filings (13F), options flow, short interest, defense contracts, lobbying spend, prediction markets, technical analysis, and more. Each source is checked daily.
What triggers a pick: When two or more unrelated sources independently flag the same stock within a rolling window, the system scores it. More sources agreeing = higher score.
The supply chain layer: We’ve mapped 2,000+ companies and the materials they depend on — 4,800+ nodes and 21,000+ edges across semiconductors, defense, energy, and robotics. If a flagged stock sits at a critical point in this map (e.g., it makes something that can’t be easily replaced), the score goes up further.
Graph-only picks: Some stocks are flagged purely by their position in the supply chain map — they control a critical material or process with no easy substitute. These don’t need multiple scanner sources to qualify.
Quality Score (0–10): Built on how hard it is to replace what the company makes, how strong demand is for it, and where the company sits in our supply chain map. Stocks are grouped into tiers: Runner (Score 7+), Watchlist (4–6), and Lower-Conviction (3 or below). Scores get re-rated as new evidence arrives; the per-pick history log started 2026-06-08.
Entry price: Closing price on the day the system first flagged the stock. Every pick has a timestamped first-appearance record — coverage is 96.4%. The 3.6% without one are excluded from the numbers on this page.
Returns: Measured from entry price to current price for open positions, and from entry to exit price for closed positions (where the stop or take-profit triggered). Updated daily. Nothing is cherry-picked or removed.
Risk management: Automatic stop-losses by tier: Runner –20%, Watchlist –15%. High-quality runners get wider trailing stops to avoid being shaken out of strong moves. The system adjusts these stops automatically based on what actually happens after past exits — if stops were too tight and stocks kept recovering, they widen on their own.
Deduplication: One pick per stock per 30-day window, so the same stock can’t inflate the numbers by being counted multiple times.
No trading costs modeled: Returns don’t include commissions or slippage. Real-world returns would be somewhat lower.
What We Show Honestly
Small sample: Live system since March 2026 — about 3 months of data. The Runner tier has — picks with a — win rate. Promising, but not yet statistically bulletproof. We show everything so you can watch the track record build.
One market regime: This period has been mostly sideways. We haven’t yet seen how the system performs in a strong bull market or a crash. That data will come with time.
What we miss: We only track stocks that still trade. Companies that got delisted or bought out aren’t in our data — that may slightly inflate the wins.
Reporting lag: Some sources (like congressional trade disclosures) can be filed weeks after the actual trade. We measure from disclosure date, not trade date — so some of the move may have already happened before we see it.
The system learns: The scoring and the stop-loss rules both adjust automatically from real outcomes. As we accumulate more data, the numbers on this page will shift — they’re not fixed.
What Would Change Our Mind
We believe the approach works. Here's what would make us reconsider:
If the top-scored picks (Runner tier) drop below a 50% win rate over any 3-month period, the scoring model may need rethinking.
If the staircase pattern breaks — meaning lower-scored picks start outperforming higher-scored ones — the quality score isn't working.
If stocks in our supply chain map stop outperforming those found by data alone, the map isn't adding value.
If the results only hold in one sector (e.g., it's really just a semiconductor momentum play), then the edge is narrower than we think.
Every pick is timestamped and tracked from the day it's flagged. If the pattern breaks down, the data on this page will show it — we can't hide it. See our full methodology page for deeper detail on how the system works.
See What the System Finds Next
The supply chain map tracks 2,000+ companies across semiconductors, defense, energy, and robotics. When a small company controls something critical and demand is growing, the system flags it.