The Physical Stack — 8 Layers, Binding Status, Lead Times
Each card is one layer. Left border color = binding status today. Bear chips show the layer's response under each stress mode.
L1
Compute · GPU + interconnect + optics
Binding now
Primary tickers
NVDA · AMD · AVGO · MRVL · TSM · COHR · LITE
CoWoS gates output
Lead time to add capacity
48 mo
CoWoS expand
Bear cases
A
Re-route to AVGO/MRVL
C
More capacity demand
B
Demand collapse
L2
HBM Memory · High-bandwidth memory stacks
Binding now
Primary tickers
000660.KS · MU · 005930.KS
Allocated through 2026; 95%+ utilization
Lead time to add capacity
24+ mo
2027 pre-sold
Bear cases
A
Stays binding
C
Pricing power trims
B
Demand collapse
L3
Storage (NAND) · HBF watch layer
Watch
Primary tickers
6600.T · STX · WDC · 2303.TW · ADEA
Becomes binding on 2027 horizon if HBF endorsed
Lead time to add capacity
12–18 mo
Only if HBF lands
Bear cases
A
Unaffected
C
Unaffected
B
Demand collapse
L4
Packaging · CoWoS, ABF, MR-MUF, hybrid bonders
Binding now
Primary tickers
2733.T · 4062.T · 3037.TW · BESI.AS · TSM
3 single-source materials; ABF >90% util
Lead time to add capacity
24–36 mo
No alternative qualified
Bear cases
A
Stays binding
C
Margin narrows
B
Demand collapse
L5
Specialty Chemistry · EUV resist, UHP HF, ALD precursors, CMP slurries
Tightening
Primary tickers
4186.T · 4063.T · 4625.T · 036830.KQ · 4401.T · 4004.T
12–36 mo qualification cycles
Lead time to add capacity
12–36 mo
Qualification gated
Bear cases
A
Stays binding
C
Alternates erode lock-in
B
Demand collapse
L6
Power · LPTs, MV switchgear, UPS
Tightening
Primary tickers
ETN · SU.PA · POWL · VRT · 267260.KS · 298040.KS · ABB
DC load → 8–12% US grid by 2030
Lead time to add capacity
36–48 mo
LPT >500 MVA
Bear cases
A
Stays binding
C
Lead times hold
B
Slow rollover
L7
Liquid Cooling · CDUs, cold plates, immersion fluids
Tightening
Primary tickers
VRT · SU.PA · ASTK.OL
Mostly private; PFAS regulatory risk
Lead time to add capacity
6–12 mo
CDU lead times
Bear cases
A
Stays binding
C
CDU margins thin
B
Demand collapse
L8
EDA + IP · Tape-out tools + ARM v9-A royalty
Paid in either case
Primary tickers
SNPS · CDNS · ARM
~80–90% advanced-node share · paid in either bear case
Lead time to add capacity
n/a
Software, no physical lead time
Bear cases
A
Paid more
C
Royalty math holds
B
Demand collapse
Sources: TSMC IR · SK Hynix IR · Ajinomoto IR · Hitachi Energy · EPRI · Techcet · ForcedAlpha graph (footnotes 7–13)
ForcedAlpha ·
Token Value Compounding