Capacity Lead Times by Layer
Months to add capacity. Vertical line = 12 months (institutional rotation horizon). 5 of 8 layers cannot expand inside it. Annotations on the right.
0 12 24 36 48 Months to add capacity institutional rotation horizon (12 mo) L1 · Compute 48 mo CoWoS expand L6 · Power (LPT) 36–48 mo LPT >500 MVA L4 · Packaging 24–36 mo ABF, no alt qualified L2 · HBM 24+ mo 2027 pre-sold L5 · Chemistry 12–36 mo qualification cycles L6 · MV Switchgear 18–24 mo tightening L3 · Storage (HBF) 12–18 mo if HBF endorsed L7 · Cooling (CDU) 6–12 mo CDU lead L8 · EDA + IP n/a software — royalty layer, no physical lead time
Sources: TSMC IR · SK Hynix IR · Hitachi Energy · ABB · Siemens Energy · EPRI · Techcet · ForcedAlpha graph (footnotes 7–13)
ForcedAlpha · Token Value Compounding