Gallium + Germanium export licensing
Warning shot. Semiconductors and solar cells affected. Western substitutes exist but at higher cost.
Graphite processing controls
EV battery supply chain targeted. Synthetic graphite anode materials require China-controlled processing.
Rare earth processing + magnet controls
Dysprosium/terbium processing and sintered NdFeB magnets. Irreplaceable in EV motors, defense guidance, wind turbines. Longest lead-time substitution in the ladder.
Tungsten export licensing introduced
First intersection of defense + semiconductor supply chains. MOFCOM licensing requirement signals intent before full freeze. NDAA Section 854 already passed.
Tungsten de facto embargo — APT exports ZERO
MOFCOM licensing suspension achieves same effect as formal ban without WTO exposure. Zero APT exports confirmed by Chinese customs data. Guangdong quota cut Apr 2026 confirms acceleration.
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Indium + Bismuth suspension cliff — or full critical minerals escalation
Export controls on indium (China 71%) and bismuth (China 80%) were enacted Feb 2025 but suspended until Nov 10, 2026 pending US-China negotiations. That suspension expiry is a hard date. Fluorite/HF acid (China 62% fluorspar) has no controls yet — but the National Reserve Security Law now provides the permanent legal infrastructure to extend restrictions to any designated mineral.
Nov 10, 2026 suspension expiry