Tungsten Squeeze — Cascade Propagation Timeline
Three parallel disruption tracks converging on Western supply chains through 2027
Immediate / active
Near-term (weeks)
Mid-term (months)
Long-term (12m+)
Confirmed prior event
Supply Shock Track — APT export freeze cascade
SUPPLY SHOCK
Zero APT exports Jan-Feb 2026 Guangdong -10.6% quota Apr 14 WF6 inventory depletion mid-2026 H2 WF6 price +70-90% WHA tooling backlog grows Q3 2026 Western APT ramp begins 2027
Policy / NDAA Track — forced-buyer deadline cascade
POLICY / NDAA
Section 854 signed Dec 2023 Busan minerals truce Oct 2025 MOFCOM licensing freeze active Busan truce expiry Nov 10, 2026 Section 854 effective Jan 1, 2027 DoD DONA procurement wave Q1 2027
Substitution Track — semiconductor leg expiration clock
SUBSTITUTION
Lam ALTUS Halo shipped Feb 2025 Kioxia BiCS10 MoO2Cl2 in production WF6 demand growth flattens H2 2026 Samsung V10 Mo eval ~2027 Volume Mo adoption 2027-2028 Semiconductor leg expires ~2028
T+0 Apr 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Nov 2026 Jan 2027 2027-2028
ForcedAlpha Casefile: The Tungsten Squeeze · ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph