The Convergent Periodic Table
15 materials × 4 demand domains. Red = binding today. Amber = tightening. Blue = watch. Gray = n/a.
MATERIAL (China-share refined / chokepoint) AI DEFENSE ENERGY QUANTUM GalliumChina 80%+ refined · VNP, AXT REDVNP / AXTI REDDPA III AMBERsolar REDRF/GaN GermaniumChina 60%+ · VNP, AXT REDVNP/AXTI REDnight-vis. BLUEPV cells REDSiGe RF NdFeB rare earthsChina 85-90% refined · MP, Lynas, Energy Fuels REDcool fans REDAUKUS REDEV/wind BLUEcryomag IndiumChina 60%+ · IUSA, AXT (InP) AMBERphotonics REDRF radar BLUECIGS PV AMBERsensing Cobalt (refined)China 60% refined · UMI.BR, JCI BLUEDC UPS AMBERsuperalloy REDEV bat. N/A HALEU uraniumRussia 95% legacy · Centrus AMRC sole US BLUEµreactor AMBERNavy REDSMR fleet N/A Sm-Co magnetsChina 90%+ · Arnold, Vacuumschmelze BLUEHDD REDhyperson. AMBERturbines N/A GOES (electrical steel)China 50%+ · CLF, AKS, NSC.T AMBERDC xfmrs BLUEbase ind. REDgrid hard N/A Copper (refined)China 45% refined · FCX, SCCO, BHP REDDC build BLUEgeneral REDgrid+EV N/A Lithium (battery-grade)China 60% refined · ALB, SQM, LTHM BLUEDC UPS AMBERdrone bat REDEV+grid N/A TantalumChina 35% refined · Global Advanced Metals AMBERcapacit. REDmissile BLUEturbine AMBERsensors TungstenChina 80%+ refined · Almonty (AMLI), Sandvik AMBERheat sink REDpenetrat. BLUEheat exch N/A SiC substratesChina 25% · Wolfspeed (WOLF), II-VI AMBERDC power AMBERradar PA REDEV inv. N/A InP substrates *Western neck*China <10% · AXTI sole US merchant RED800G optic REDLiDAR BLUEPV indir. REDQC photon EUV photoresists *JP neck*China <5% · JSR, TOK, Shin-Etsu, Fuji REDTSMC AZ AMBERDoD chip N/A BLUEPQ-crypto RED binding AMBER tightening BLUE watch GRAY n/a 21 of 60 cells red (35%) — convergent zones
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025; SEMI World Fab Forecast Q1 2026; Adamas Intelligence quarterly tracking; DOE Critical Materials Assessment 2024; PRC MOFCOM gazette 2023–2026.
Three Forces, One Periodic Table · ForcedAlpha · forcedalpha.com