The Investable Window: 2026–2032
Three clocks: AI doubling cadence, physical capacity build, policy phase-in. Window opens with Section 854 effective dates; closes if reshoring catches up.
2024 ←————— investable window 2026–2032 —————→ 2034 INVESTABLE WINDOW SOFTWARE / AI doubling 12-24 months PHYSICAL CAPACITY 3-15 yr fabs / mines / qualifications 2024 2025 2026 ← 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 → 2034 NDAA §854 effective Jan 1, 2027 phase-in begins §854 expansion begins TSMC AZ pilot at volume §854 full-rate effective 2032 thesis test reshoring caught up?
Sources: NDAA Section 854 phasing, FY2024–2030 conference reports; CHIPS Program Office; DOE LPO portfolio reports; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025; HALEU Availability Program disclosures.
Three Forces, One Periodic Table · ForcedAlpha · forcedalpha.com