China Counter-Flywheel
Observed escalation pattern, August 2023 → 2026. Each Western reshoring wave provokes a calibrated PRC response on the next-most-strategic material.
1. PRC export controls tighten Aug 2023: Ga / Ge licensing Dec 2024: graphite / antimony 2025: tungsten product-form 2026: rare-earth processing tech 2. Western reshoring announces CHIPS Act $39B MP NdFeB Independence TX Centrus HALEU bootstrap Lynas Texas heavy-RE 3. Demand spike on remaining qualified Western suppliers AXTI · MP · VNP · Stella Centrus · Energy Fuels order books extend 18-to-24mo 4. PRC adds next control layer → 2026 indium tightening? → deeper-stage RE controls? → separation chemistry export controls on the next-most-strategic material provokes drives demand to remaining qualified merchants visibility / strategic threat closes the loop → next escalation event Regime assumption: persistent US-China technology competition, no full decoupling resolution, no Chinese advanced-technology breakthrough, no US policy reversal.
Sources: PRC MOFCOM gazette (August 2023, December 2024, 2025–2026); Reuters PRC supply-chain desk; SEMI strategic minerals tracker; CHIPS Act Program Office disclosures.
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