The Three Shocks: One Unseen Link
Three unrelated crises converging on sulfuric acid in the same 30 days
H₂SO₄
Sulfuric Acid
~260 Mt/yr global
The cheapest link
SHOCK 1 · POLICY
China sulfuric acid export halt
Effective May 2026
Bloomberg April 10
SHOCK 2 · CHOKEPOINT
Hormuz technically open
but empty
6-9 tankers/day vs 100-120
Kpler April 9-10
SHOCK 3 · SOVEREIGN
Pakistan April debt wall
$4.8B due vs $16.4B reserves
85% DAP imported from OCP
96% migrants in Gulf
DOWNSTREAM DEPENDENTS
FERTILIZER
COPPER
NICKEL/HPAL
URANIUM
Source: ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph
ForcedAlpha Casefile: The Sulfuric Acid Cascade
· Source: ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph