The Four Sovereigns
Graph BFS from 4 triggers surfaces 4 sovereign actors. Pakistan first on timing, not uniquely fragile.
H₂SO₄
Sulfuric Acid
4 triggers, 4 sovereigns
19 named companies
PAKISTAN · SEV 4
Mechanism: Timing
85% DAP imported (OCP)
$4.8B April debt / $16.4B reserves
BANGLADESH · SEV 3
Mechanism: Concentration
90-93% DAP imported
Ma'aden ~40% single-point
EGYPT · SEV 3
Mechanism: Producer cost
Phosphate producer, not importer
Gulf sulfur 30-40% of input
SRI LANKA · SEV 3
Mechanism: Post-default
Already restructured, recovering
China 42% / UAE 22% / Saudi 9%
4 sovereigns · 46 named companies across fertilizer, copper, nickel, uranium, and oil
Source: ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph · V92
ForcedAlpha Casefile: The Sulfuric Acid Cascade
· Source: ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph