May 14–15, 2026
Trump Beijing Summit Visit
The Trump administration's May 14–15, 2026 Beijing summit represents the most significant diplomatic contact since Busan. A presidential visit has historically preceded framework renewals — but also revisions that narrow scope. The November 10 expiry date is not affected by the visit itself; only a formal written extension, renegotiation, or new agreement would alter the cliff structure. No binding review date has been publicly confirmed for this period under the Busan framework.
May–Jun 2026
Summit Format Decision
Whether a formal ministerial-level meeting is scheduled for Q3 will indicate whether Scenario A (extension) or Scenario B (stall) is the base case. No announced summit by June 30 materially raises Scenario B probability.
Jul–Sep 2026
Stockpiling Sprint Window
If no formal extension is confirmed by July 1, expect precautionary procurement to begin at defense prime contractors and semiconductor fabs. This is the period where physical market tightening would first become visible in trade data (90–120 day lead times).
Jan 1, 2027
NDAA Section 854 — Chinese RE Magnet Ban Effective
NDAA Section 854 (Public Law 118-31) bans procurement of Chinese-origin rare earth magnets for US weapons systems effective January 1, 2027. National security waivers are available on a rolling basis subject to DOD review. The volume of waiver applications itself reveals the scale of Western industrial exposure to the supply chain gap.
Nov 10, 2026
Layer 2 Cliff — MOFCOM No. 55–58, 61–62 Expiry
The primary catalyst date. If no replacement framework is announced, the October 2025 extraterritorial controls reimpose automatically. This is the event horizon.
Nov 27, 2026
Layer 3 Cliff — MOFCOM No. 46 Expiry
The US-specific gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials ban expires seventeen days after the Layer 2 cliff. A two-week window between the two expirations creates additional diplomatic complexity.