Cascade Topology — BFS paths from chokepoint controls
Gallium
sev5 — 98% China
GaAs / GaN substrates
sev4
Compound semi mfrs
sev4
Defense radar
5G RF front-ends
Germanium
sev4 — ~80% China
IR detectors
Defense ISR
Fiber optic preform
Telecom buildout
RE Separation
sev5 — 90%+ China
NdPr oxide
NdFeB magnets
EV traction motors
Wind turbines
Humanoid robots
Defense actuators
Dy / Tb Heavy RE
sev5
High-temp magnets
Defense-grade only
kg-scale US output
Tungsten
sev4 — 15 exporters
Armor-piercing ammo
Defense primes
Antimony
sev4 — 11 exporters
Munitions primers
Defense primes
Severity 5 — sole/near-sole source
Severity 4 — dominant, limited alternatives
End-use industries
ForcedAlpha — November Cliff Cascade