| Trigger | DFARS 252.225-7052 expands Jan 1, 2027 to require non-China origin across mine, refine, separate, melt, and magnet production for covered NdFeB and SmCo magnets.[3] |
|---|---|
| Bottleneck | Qualified non-China-feedstock NdFeB — specifically grain-boundary-diffused Dy/Tb magnets — on a 2026–2029 timeline. Western separation, metal, and GBD capacity does not meet covered defense demand before 10X commissioning.[3][4][11] |
| Beneficiaries | MP Materials — 10X Facility, sole DoD offtake, 2028 commissioning.[11] Lynas — 5,000 tpa heavy rare earth separation, Malaysia.[35] Niron Magnetics — 1,500 tpa rare-earth-free iron-nitride. USA Rare Earth — $1.6B CHIPS package, Stillwater magnet line.[20][12] |
| Kill condition | Class nonavailability determination by USD(A&S), or broad individual waivers that let primes source non-compliant magnets through 2028. Either delays the equity re-rating by 12–24 months.[33][2] |
| Horizon | 18–30 months. The window between DFARS enforcement (Jan 1, 2027) and 10X commissioning (2028) is the binding constraint.[3][11] |