Supply gap | MT/yr rare-earth compounds & metals
US import volume from China dwarfs qualified non-China capacity available by Jan 1, 2027
Annual US rare-earth compound and metal imports against the qualified non-Chinese-feedstock capacity that meets NDAA §854 sourcing rules on the effective date.
US imports2023, all sources
of which China
70% direct. Effective dependence runs higher once Malaysia, Estonia, and Japan feedstock origin is traced back to Chinese mines.[34]
Modeled by 2027non-China feedstock, announced
Operational by 2027contracted and delivering
0
2,750
5,500
8,250
11,000 MT
Day-one shortfall
Operational supply covers roughly 8–12% of 2023 import volume; modeled supply covers ~30–40%. Closing the gap on the modeled timeline assumes on-time delivery of every announced project plus 12–18 month OEM qualification cycles, which historically slip 6–12 months.
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025[34]. Lynas Oct 29 2025 expanded HRE announcement[35]. DoE and DPA Title III award disclosures. ForcedAlpha cascade-priced operational vs modeled split.