Policy Floor — Three Tiers, Not One Number
Tier 1 + Tier 2 ≈ $650–750B of actually protected demand. Tier 3 is aspirational and cancellable.
T1 ~$350B
T2 ~$350B
T3 ~$425B
Legally bound, contract-awarded, or defense-mandated
- CHIPS Act — awarded grants (TSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron) — $39B committed
- NDAA / DFARS rare earth sourcing mandates — multi-year defense procurement
- DOE HALEU enrichment program — nuclear fuel supply chain
- MP Materials / ReElement DARPA/DOD offtake contracts — domestic magnet supply
- Defense Production Act (DPA) Title III — classified materials floor
- IRA §48C Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit — awarded rounds
Hard floor: Cancelling Tier 1 requires an Act of Congress or breach of existing contracts — not a political choice.
Statutory or treaty-backed programs with strong bipartisan support
- IRA §45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit — solar, battery, critical minerals
- IRA §30D EV tax credit (minerals sourcing eligibility) — demand-side floor
- CHIPS Act — remaining unawarded grants + R&D programs
- TSMC Arizona capex commitment ($65B) — contractually locked in
- EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) — European demand floor for RE + battery materials
- US–Japan, US–UK critical minerals trade agreements
Announced guidance, policy goals, and unformalized commitments
- Hyperscaler AI capex guidance (MSFT / GOOG / META / AMZN) — not contracts
- METI semiconductor/battery aspirational targets — no statutory backing
- K-Chips Act (Korea) — incentive programs subject to budget cycles
- EU Chips Act — partially awarded; significant aspirational component
Tier 1 + Tier 2 Protected Floor
Even in a policy reversal scenario — Tier 1 alone (~$350B) represents enormous protected demand for critical minerals, compound semiconductors, and rare earth magnet producers.
~$650–750B