Claim Confidence Tiers

Every claim in this casefile is tagged — read the border as confidence level

VERIFIED

Evidence-based, sourced claim

Backed by primary or authoritative secondary sources — company filings, SEMI reports, government data, earnings transcripts. Black border.

e.g. "China exported 0 tons of APT in January–February 2026" (SMM customs data)

DERIVED

Graph-topology conclusion

Inferred from ForcedAlpha supply chain graph traversal — logical consequence of verified upstream/downstream nodes. Gray border.

e.g. "Disruption at gallium refining propagates to InP wafers within 6–18 months" (graph BFS hop count)

MONITORED

Forward-looking, being tracked

Price targets, policy outcomes, or timelines that are directionally supported but not yet confirmed. Amber border. Updated when evidence changes.

e.g. "NDAA §5949 compliance deadline creates forced-buyer demand from Q1 2027"

13 Atoms Meta-Casefile · ForcedAlpha Supply Chain Intelligence Graph · forcedalpha.com