MOFCOM Convergence: Two Chains, One Ministry
Sanctions counter-compliance and mineral export permits share a single Chinese administrative node
CHAIN A — ENERGY CHAIN B — MINERALS OFAC Designations EO 13902 / 13846 5 Chinese Refiners Sanctioned Apr 2026 Blocking Statute Order 2026 No. 21 Compliance Conflict Multinationals choose Iranian Crude Discount dynamics MOFCOM Ministry of Commerce Export Permit Regime Dec 2023 – Oct 2024 7 Controlled Minerals Ga Ge Sb W Te Bi Mo Permit Processing Approval rates & timing Semiconductor Inputs Defense constraints Western Producers Gain share SUMMIT OUTCOME BRANCHES Scenario A Tactical Détente Both chains paused Scenario B Minerals-for-Tariffs Chain B eases Scenario C Escalation Both chains activate Source: ForcedAlpha Cascade Engine
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